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Thegovernor of Tierra del Fuego told the CDA that Argentineswere "absolutists" in how they viewed politicians as eitherwinners or losers, with no gray areas in between.¶6.(C) Echoing a commonly heard refrain, pollster Doris Capurro adds that the Argentine press, particularly thedominant Clarin media group, often serves as "Coup Central."Clarin, she said, fomented Fernando de la Rua's departurefrom power in 2001, and its owners are fierce critics of the Kirchners.With 45% of the vote, she outdistancedher nearest opponent by more than twenty percentage pointsand doubled the vote received in 2003 by NK, who was then thelittle-known governor of remote Santa Cruz.The rulingcouple's considerable political capital dissipated last yearas a consequence of their confrontation with the farm sector. Much of the speculation was fed by thegovernment's most bitter opponents.(SBU) Fraga argues that the history of Argentina'spost-dictatorship democracy does not bode well for the Kirchners.Over that 25-year period, three electedgovernments lost mid-terms.CFK and NK's plummeting poll numbers, their sudden inabilityto stay ahead of the curve, and their abandonment by many oftheir allies set the stage for a humiliating Senate defeat ofgovernment legislation that would have ratified the exporttax increase at the heart of the controversy one year ago.¶3. Diego Guelar, a foreignpolicy advisor to Buenos Aires Mayor Mauricio Macri, told avisiting congressional staffer last August that "thisgovernment won't last 60 days" -- just minutes after his bosshad said that it would. A former aide to Buenos Aires Province Governor Daniel Scioli confided to us recently that he andother colleagues had urged Scioli to break ranks with the Kirchners last year over the farm controversy.

With its defeat in the June 28 mid-term election, the speculation has returned,though it has not reached last year's fever pitch.In the run-up to the October2007 presidential elections, public approval ratings foroutgoing President Nestor Kirchner (NK) went as high as 77%,as Argentines credited him for the country's remarkableeconomic recovery after its 2001-02 economic meltdown.